S&P 500 Futures Rise on Iran Ceasefire Extension — PMI Data Will Set Direction April 23

U.S. stock index futures moved higher early Thursday after President Trump extended the ceasefire deadline in ongoing Iran negotiations, removing a near-term geopolitical tail risk that had weighed on equities through most of the week. SPY, the S&P 500 tracking ETF, was up approximately 0.62% in pre-market trading as of Wednesday evening.

The move follows a volatile stretch. The S&P 500 closed at 7,064.01 on April 21 (-0.63%) as uncertainty around the Iran talks, the Kevin Warsh Fed confirmation hearing, and the Apple CEO transition announcement hit sentiment simultaneously. Wednesday brought a partial recovery as the ceasefire news circulated. Thursday’s session will be shaped by whether morning economic data confirms or undercuts the rebound narrative.

What’s on the Calendar April 23

Three scheduled data releases could move markets Thursday:

1. S&P Global PMI Flash Estimates (April) The flash PMI readings for both manufacturing and services provide an early read on business conditions in April. After a period of solid services growth offset by manufacturing softness, a divergence here could either reassure investors (if services remain resilient) or amplify concerns about a broader slowdown.

Consensus expectations are for the services PMI to remain in expansion territory above 50, with manufacturing remaining close to the 50 breakeven. A services print below 50 would likely be interpreted as a signal that the broader economy is losing momentum faster than currently priced.

2. Initial Jobless Claims (Week of April 18) Weekly initial claims have been running near historic lows, and any significant uptick would attract outsized attention given the current sensitivity around labor market health. Consensus is for claims in the 210,000–220,000 range. A print above 240,000 would likely generate meaningful market reaction.

3. Corporate Earnings Several companies report Thursday, including Baker Hughes, Ameriprise Financial, and Newmont. Baker Hughes will be watched for signals on energy infrastructure spending, which connects to the broader oil market dynamics that have been in play during the Iran ceasefire period.

Iran Ceasefire: Why Markets Are Watching Closely

The Iran ceasefire negotiations have been a recurring factor in oil price volatility throughout April 2026. The original deadline expiration on April 21 sent crude oil higher as markets priced in a potential return to sanctions-level tensions. Trump’s extension of the deadline removed that pressure temporarily.

Oil prices are a meaningful input for both inflation expectations and corporate margins — particularly for transportation, airlines, and consumer staples companies. A sustained decline in oil on the back of a successful ceasefire agreement would be modestly positive for broad equity markets by reducing cost pressures and giving the Fed more flexibility to consider rate cuts.

Conversely, a breakdown in negotiations would likely send crude sharply higher, complicating the Fed’s inflation picture and potentially extending the pause on interest rate cuts into late 2026.

The Broader Market Context

The S&P 500’s move above 7,000 earlier in 2026 represented a significant psychological milestone, and the index has spent much of April consolidating near that level. Several crosscurrents are in play simultaneously:

Fed policy: The April 29 FOMC meeting is expected to hold rates steady at 3.50–3.75%. CME FedWatch shows near-100% probability of no change. The market’s attention has shifted to whether the first rate cut comes in June or September.
Earnings season: The bulk of large-cap earnings are due over the next two weeks. Tesla delivered a mixed Q1 with margins better than feared. Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft report next week.
AI capex: Amazon’s $330 billion Anthropic commitment, announced this week, is one of several signals that AI infrastructure spending is accelerating. This is a positive factor for Nvidia and the broader semiconductor supply chain, but it also raises questions about whether the major tech platforms are over-investing.

Sector Watch

Thursday’s PMI data will provide a clearest signal on which sectors are likely to lead or lag if the rebound holds:

Sector	Sensitivity to PMI	Notes
Industrials	High	Manufacturing PMI directly relevant
Consumer Discretionary	Moderate	Services PMI more relevant
Energy	Independent	Oil-price driven, Iran news is primary catalyst
Technology	Low (near term)	Earnings-driven, PMI less relevant
Financials	Moderate	Claims data / rate expectations

What to Watch

For investors holding through Thursday’s session, the practical checklist is:

PMI manufacturing flash: is it above or below 50?
PMI services flash: above or below 52 (the consensus)?
Initial claims: below or above 230,000?
Oil price direction: is the ceasefire extension holding?

If all four come in at or better than consensus, the 0.62% pre-market gain has room to hold. If one or more disappoint, the more important question is whether the index can defend the 7,000 level on a closing basis.

Sources: CNBC, 247wallst.com, Yahoo Finance, CME FedWatch